The risk has been increasing that the United States will have a recession in 2025 or within the next year, according to top Wall Street firms and economists. Recession risk has risen sharply over the last few months, largely due to the trade war and the potential for tariffs to hurt U.S. (and global) economic growth and ignite inflation.
Below I’ll explore the current probability of a near-term recession and what stocks could hold up best during the next recession.
Many of the probability estimates from experts that the U.S. will have a recession in 2025 or within one year fall within the 40% to 60% range, though there are some credible sources with estimates that are lower and higher. In early April, Wall Street company Goldman Sachs boosted its one-year recession-risk probability to 45% from 35%, which it had previously increased from 20% in late March.